The Theft Component

Published on, by Jeff Berg, 22 October, 2008.

A representative look at the polls that break down the U.S. vote state by state shows the following:

  • Obama has a lead of 7% or more in state’s worth 282 electoral votes.
  • McCain is leading or tied in states worth 212 electoral votes.
  • This leaves only four states and 44 electoral college votes. Maine (4), Nevada (5), North Carolina (15), Ohio (20). Obama is leading in each of these races as well albeit by less than 7%.

As it takes only 270 electoral college votes to be President this race is well and truly over. In fact it is not even close. Were it taking place in a fully functioning democracy there would be ZERO doubt at this point. Also, if the U.S. had a vigorously independent fourth estate this statistical reality would be everywhere in the media. In fact it would be the lead in story after story and the talk everywhere would have turned at this point to Obama’s coming win excepting of course for Republican “dead-enders”. The Republican guard so to speak.

The focus today would now be squarely on just how big the win will turn out to be, how massive the mandate, what this might mean for America, etc. By way of contrast the election coverage for Canada’s October 14 national election was centred for most of the campaign on the size of the Conservative party’s likely win. Why? It’s what the polls showed.

It is also a fact that not for the first time the five major polling organizations covering the Canadian election were all within a couple of percentage points of being exactly right in their final projections of the popular vote. The seat counts that they projected for each of the parties were equally accurate. Furthermore before the polls had closed and with only a tiny percentage of the vote having reported both the CTV and CBC television broadcasts accurately called the result based on exit polling. The same is routinely done in Europe. Not so in the U.S. In fact in the U.S. the media will not report the actual survey results. Instead they will report only the data after it has been adjusted so as to conform with the official numbers. I kid you not. As they say in baseball you can look it up: National Election Pool.

The simple fact of the matter is that while computer modeling, random sampling, and statistical projections have definite limitations elections ain’t one of them. As a result there is quite simply no room for doubt at this point. This one is done, except for one thing.

The theft component: …

… Our best defense against these storms is proper preparation. Given its nearness the restoring of the integrity of America’s vote would be a fit place for that first long overdue step in the direction of a better America and a more secure tomorrow. The world waits with interest and fingers crossed to see what we shall see on November 4. (full text).

(Jeff Berg is a founding member of Post Carbon Toronto. His writing focuses on Energy & Emissions and their micro and macro implications ecologically, economically and socially. He can be reached by mail).

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