The collapse of the EU and the Russian-German condominium …

… over the rest of Europe – Published on Current Concerns, by Professor Dr Albert A. Stahel, Institut für Strategische Studien, July 23, 2012. (Translation Current Concerns).

At present the EU is politically shaken by the financial and economic crises in the southern European countries, so Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal. Burdened by high debt these countries face at the same time a recession in their economies. Two different economic schools with opposing solutions for modernization and growth are proposed to these countries. 

While Milton Friedman’s Chicago School is postulating a fiscal policy that is aimed at economizing, the Keynesian school provides for economic policies that stimulate an economy through government spending. German economists in particular are considered the representatives of the Chicago School in Europe. Due to their advice, the Merkel government demands unyielding fiscal austerity from the southern Europeans. Under no circumstances should the EU finance the bankrupt southern Europeans. According to this fiscal policy school this would lead to inflation loaded on the Germans’ backs. Merkel knows very well that Germany till now has benefited from the economic imbalance in the EU at the expense of the southern Europeans. While Germany can repeatedly go into new debts cost-free, the southern Europeans pay exorbitant interest on their debts.

Merkel is confronted with the French President, Hollande, who is more likely to tend towards the Keynesian school. With euro bonds, i.e. government loans throughout the euro zone, the southern Europeans may borrow money from the market at the same interest rates as the Germans. The introduction of euro bonds is blocked by the Chancellor.

The result of the Merkel dictate, which almost resembles blackmailing, is jointly responsible for the recession in Southern Europe. While in Greece state employees are laid off in droves, the Greek economy is getting into the red. Spain and Portugal, and possibly Italy face similar developments. The consequences are foreseeable. Populist parties will take over the power in these states and resist the Berlin dictate. In the medium to long term we may face armed riots in southern Europe, which could in turn trigger migration towards Central Europe. Such a development would not only mean the end of the euro, but could also lead to the disintegration of the EU and the rise of organized crime in Europe.

While the EU and its member states are confronted with the described problems, the US military is withdrawing from Europe. Also because of this two pointless wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, Washington is struggling now with fiscal deficits … //

… Eurasian Union:

Under the condition that the German-Russian condominium over the rest of Europe (Scenario 1) came into existence and that China could block the power of the USA in the Western Pacific (scenario 2), Putin’s Russia might want to extend the former nucleus of the Eurasian Union both on China and on Europe dominated by Germany. In a first step this could mean a better economic and political cooperation between the energy and production powers of Eurasia. An important basis is the current expansion of the Silk Road as a trade link between Germany and China. It is also conceivable that especially China wants to pursue a political union of Eurasia in a second step. The partners of China may not consider such a union a desirable step given the size of the Chinese population. However, Eurasia and its union may develop; such an economic union alone would mean the end of American hege-mony over the world.

Wars in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf:

If the indicated decay of US power in Scenarios 1 and 2 accelerated in the foreseeable future, a coalition among the Iranian opponents Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Israel would emerge due to the power vacuum and power demands of Iran over the Persian Gulf – Iraq, western Afghanistan. One such move would definitely destabilize the region. If Israel had then not launched an air strike against Iranian nuclear facilities, the situation would then be reached in which Israel would launch a nuclear strike against Iran. It is also conceivable that in such a situation Saudi Arabia and Turkey would acquire their own nuclear weapons. It may also happen that a nuclear proliferation would even lead to a stabilization of the region. Until this point was reached an uninterrupted series of wars would have to be expected, in particular between Iran and Saudi Arabia and Iran and Turkey. Determined by the goal of power adjustment, these wars would have some similarities with the centuries of struggle between Byzantium and the Sassanid Empire. These wars are likely to lead to the final exodus of Christians from the region.

Rearmament of the United States: … (full text).

Links:

Kinder: Schleppt sie auf Reisen, im Blog des Tages-Anzeigers, von Andrea Fischer, 3. August 2012;

How Athletics Are Ruining University Life and Real Scholarship – Four years of college has been turned into a mindless quest for collective euphoria and athletic dominance, on AlterNet, by Chris Hedges, July 31, 2012.

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